India-Pakistan: Why UAE-UAE took the risk of mediating hostility over Kashmir.
Another war
between South Asia's two nuclear-armed neighbors posed a serious threat after a
terrorist attack in Pulwama in Indian-administered Kashmir in February 2019
killed 40 Indian soldiers.
The war did not end, but India-Pakistan relations were
frozen.
A few months later, in August, Narendra Modi's government
repealed Article 370 of the constitution and revoked the special status of
Kashmir.
But over the last couple of months, the ice has suddenly
begun to melt. The first indication came on February 25, when a rare meeting
between the two countries' military officials decided to abide by a 2003 ceasefire
agreement on the Line of Control in Kashmir. Many were surprised at the news.
Then in mid-March, when Pakistan's army chief, General Qamar
Rashid Bajwa, spoke of reconciliation between India and Pakistan and
"resolving the Kashmir crisis" in a "peaceful way" by
"burying the conflicts of the past," the idea became stronger.
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Shortly afterward, Pakistan lifted the ban on imports of
cotton and sugar from India. When Prime Minister Imran Khan contracted the
coronavirus, Narendra Modi sent a message wishing him a speedy recovery.
One by one, the news came out, citing anonymous sources in
several media outlets, indicating that secret contacts and talks had begun
between India and Pakistan, mediated by the United Arab Emirates.
When the UAE foreign minister suddenly visited Delhi in
March, the whispers grew louder. The Reuters news agency also reported that
senior intelligence officials from the two countries held a secret meeting in
Dubai in January.
Finally, on April 15, Yousef Al Otaiba, the UAE's ambassador
to the United States, spoke openly about the mediation. He said in a virtual
discussion at Stanford University that the UAE had played a key role in easing
tensions between India and Pakistan over Kashmir.
The ambassador said they now hoped that India-Pakistan
relations would reach a "healthy" stage where they would talk to each
other, sending ambassadors back to each other's capitals. "They may not be
close friends, but we want them to start talking."
On the same day, three days after the UAE diplomat's
remarks, Indian Foreign Minister S Jayashankar and Pakistani Foreign Minister
Shah Mahmood Qureshi visited Abu Dhabi. It is unknown at this time what he will
do after leaving the post. However, it is now clear that the UAE has played a
role in bringing peace between India and Pakistan.
The question is, why did this small Gulf country take on the
responsibility of this very difficult task? How much impact do they have?
A city called Sparta had a special reputation in ancient
Greece for its military prowess. Former United States Secretary of Defense Jim
Mattis has dubbed 'Little Sparta' after seeing the military ambitions of the United Arab Emirates.
The small Gulf state has been directly involved in military
operations in neighboring Yemen, Libya, East Africa, and Afghanistan. But over
the past few years, the country has been working to create an image of a
peace-mediating state.
The main driving force behind this is the powerful Prince
Mohammed bin Zayed of Abu Dhabi.
The Indian government took away the special status of
Kashmir
In 2016, the UAE played a role in establishing peace between
Ethiopia and Eritrea. The country played a mediating role in the border dispute
between Ethiopia and Sudan. Ethiopia has also played a role in resolving their
dispute with Egypt over the construction of a dam on the Nile River.
At one time, the UAE was a major supplier of weapons to
Libya's militia leader Khalifa Haftar. Now they are talking about a political
solution there - of course, they have taken that path after Turkey's military
intervention in Libya. The UAE has also significantly reduced military activity
in Yemen.
But the decision to mediate to bring India and Pakistan
closer is by far the UAE's most ambitious peace project.
Sami Hamdi, head of International Interest, a London-based
think tank on political risk, and a Middle East political analyst said the UAE
was now keen to establish an image of peace with the world, in line with Qatar.
"The UAE wants to show that it is a modern, powerful
liberal state that is trying to bring peace to the world, and that its
influence and acceptance is now so great that it is also playing a role in
resolving disputes between two nuclear-armed countries like India and
Pakistan."
Sami Hamdi told BBC Bangla that the UAE's main consideration
was their "image, prestige", whether or not there would be peace
between India and Pakistan through their mediation.
"That's why you can see that neither India nor Pakistan
has informed them about the start of the talks or the third party mediation.
The UAE said.
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Kashmir in various forums
However, Mr. Hamdi believes that the UAE also has some
geopolitical interests in easing the animosity between Pakistan and India.
"The UAE is concerned about the possibility of
increasing Turkey's influence in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of American
troops. That is why Pakistan needs them. The UAE may think that it can be
easier to gain that confidence if it can co-operate with Pakistan on the
Kashmir issue. "
Hussein Ibish, an expert on Middle Eastern politics and a
researcher at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington wrote in an
analysis in Bloomberg magazine that the UAE itself wants a
"realistic" understanding of the Kashmir issue.
"Many radical Islamist and terrorist groups try to stir
up the emotions of ordinary Muslims by highlighting the plight of Kashmiris.
The UAE sees these groups as the biggest threat to itself. So they have an
interest in finding an acceptable solution to the Kashmir problem. "
But why did India and Pakistan accept the UAE's mediation?
Jawaharlal University Professor of International Relations
in Delhi. According to Sanjay Bhardwaj, he too was initially surprised to learn
of the UAE's mediation, as India had never accepted a third-party mediation
offer in negotiations with Kashmir or Pakistan.
Sami Hamdi, head of International Interest, a London-based
think tank on political risk, and a Middle East political analyst said the UAE
was now keen to establish an image of peace with the world, in line with Qatar.
"The UAE wants to show that it is a modern, powerful
liberal state that is trying to bring peace to the world, and that its
influence and acceptance is now so great that it is also playing a role in
resolving disputes between two nuclear-armed countries like India and
Pakistan."
Sami Hamdi told BBC Bangla that the UAE's main consideration
was their "image, prestige", whether or not there would be peace
between India and Pakistan through their mediation.
"That's why you can see that neither India nor Pakistan
has informed them about the start of the talks or the mediation of a third
party. The UAE said.
Why is Turkish President Erdogan raising the question of
Kashmir in various forums
However, Mr. Hamdi believes that the UAE also has some
geopolitical interests in easing the animosity between Pakistan and India.
"The UAE is concerned about the possibility of
increasing Turkey's influence in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of American
troops. That is why Pakistan needs them. The UAE may think that it can be
easier to gain that confidence if it can co-operate with Pakistan on the
Kashmir issue. "
Hussein Ibis, an expert on Middle Eastern politics and a
researcher at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington wrote in an
analysis in Bloomberg magazine that the UAE itself wants a
"realistic" understanding of the Kashmir issue.
"Many radical Islamist and terrorist groups try to stir
up the emotions of ordinary Muslims by highlighting the plight of Kashmiris.
The UAE sees these groups as the biggest threat to itself. So they have an
interest in finding an acceptable solution to the Kashmir problem. "
But why did India and Pakistan accept the UAE's mediation?
Jawaharlal University Professor of International Relations in Delhi. According to Sanjay Bhardwaj, he was initially surprised to learn of the UAE's mediation, as India had never accepted a third-party mediation offer in negotiations with Kashmir or Pakistan.
India also rejected a mediation offer from then-US President
Donald Trump after the Pulwama crisis. So why is India now agreeing to UAE
mediation?
Dr. Bhardwaj believes that a number of new geopolitical
realities, including in Afghanistan, are at work behind India's flexible
position.
"If American troops leave Afghanistan, Pakistan's
influence there will increase. But India is also determined to maintain its
position in Afghanistan for its market in Central Asia. That is why the West
thinks that an understanding between India and Pakistan is necessary for the
stability of Afghanistan. "
But it is as embarrassing for India as it is for Pakistan at
the moment to move forward with the proposal to talk among themselves because
of internal politics. India is therefore considering the UAE's mediation as an
acceptable option at the moment.
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Dr. Bhardwaj said Pakistan had not received much support
from Saudi Arabia or the UAE since the revocation of Kashmir's special status.
"These two influential Islamic countries consider Kashmir as an internal
issue of India. That is why India is relying on the UAE. "
On the other hand, Pakistan has never objected to third-party mediation in Kashmir or India. Moreover, the internal economic crisis and
the reluctance of the world's influential countries to deal with Kashmir have
forced Pakistan to agree to an agreement with India.
Researcher at the Center for International Studies and Diplomacy
at Swiss University in London and an analyst on Pakistani politics. Ayesha
Siddique told BBC Bangla that "the main reason behind Pakistan's
reluctance to negotiate with India is economic persecution."
"Pakistan understands that they are missing out on
America's Pacific policy. India is the centerpiece there. That is definitely a
big headache for Pakistan."
Indian Foreign Minister S Jayashankar
Sami Hamdi also thinks that Pakistan's closeness with Qatar
and Turkey as an alternative to Saudi Arabia and the UAE has caused economic
damage. "Imran Khan is looking at his old allies again."
What are the chances of success in UAE mediation?
The problems that the UAE has had to deal with in Ethiopia
and Eritrea as mediators are perhaps a million times greater than in the case
of India and Pakistan.
Pakistan's foreign minister also told some Middle Eastern
media on Sunday that India must restore the special status of Kashmir.
If Pakistan remains adamant in this position, the talks
could be ruined at any moment. Dr. "If Pakistan puts too much pressure on
Kashmir, the result will be zero," Vardoaj said.
Sami Hamdi said how successful or unsuccessful the UAE would
be in mediation would depend on the level of expectations.
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"If you think the UAE can come up with a full-fledged peace deal between India and Pakistan, it may not be possible," he said.
No one can give a magic solution to the Kashmir problem. But if you think
tensions between the two countries will go down, that's probably a possibility.
"
Mr. Hamdi thinks the UAE has the opportunity to mediate
because Pakistan and India want to talk to each other, so success or failure
will depend on the two countries.
On the plus side, it could not have been the case that
thousands of conspiracy theories would have been born if the United States or
any Western country had acted as a mediator.
Both India and Pakistan have good relations with the UAE.
Millions of people from both countries work and live in that country. And after
the news of the UAE's mediation was announced, the media or commentators of the
two countries are saying positive things about it.
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